Monthly boom index report of nonferrous metal industry in November 2016
In November 2016, the prosperity index of China's nonferrous metals industry was 29.8, up 1.5 points from the previous month. Although it is still "slightly cold", it is close to the lower edge of the "normal" area; The leading index of China's nonferrous metal industry was 84.4, up 1.3 points from the previous month; The consensus index was 78.8, a slight increase of 2.0 points over the previous month. It is preliminarily judged that the prosperity index of nonferrous metal industry is close to the lower edge of the "normal" region, and the industry shows obvious signs of rebound. However, as the development environment has not fundamentally improved, the possibility that the index will fluctuate in the "cooler" range cannot be ruled out in the future.
1. The boom index is close to the lower edge of the "normal" area, and the industry continues to recover
In November 2016, the China Economic Non ferrous Metals Industry Prosperity Index was 29.8, up 1.5 points from the previous month. The boom index is close to the lower edge of the "normal" region, and the industry continues to recover.
Among the 12 indicators that constitute the prosperity index of the nonferrous metals industry, there are 7 indicators in the "normal" range, including the output of ten nonferrous metals, total profits, export of nonferrous metals, LMEX, automobile output, household appliances output and power generation; There are three indicators in the "cold" range, including import volume, main business income and M2; The sales area of commercial housing is located in the "hot" section; The investment amount of non-ferrous metal fixed assets is located in the "supercooled" range.
2. The leading composite index rose steadily
The leading index of nonferrous metal industry in November 2016 was 84.4, an increase of 1.3 points over the previous month. Since this year, both the leading composite index and the prosperity index have rebounded. It is expected that the nonferrous metal industry index is expected to break through the "normal" range and continue to rise in the short term.
Among the seven indicators that constitute the leading index of the nonferrous metal industry, five indicators rose year on year after seasonal adjustment. The year-on-year growth rates of LMEX, M2, automobile output, commercial housing sales area and household appliances output were 4.5%, 11.4%, 18.2%, 38.9% and 11.6% respectively.
3. The non-ferrous metal industry will not rule out the possibility that the index will fluctuate in the "cooler" range in the future.
From the perspective of the global economic environment, the global economy will still maintain moderate growth in the fourth quarter of 2016. Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase in December is almost certain, most of the US economic data is positive, and the US dollar is stronger in shock, which will affect the continued upward movement of non-ferrous metal prices. At the same time, Italy failed in the referendum. With the aftermath of the British withdrawal from Europe still unsettled, the Italian incident will undoubtedly have a greater impact on the price of non-ferrous metals in the short term.
From the perspective of domestic economic environment, the national economy in October continued the development trend of overall stability, progress and quality improvement since the third quarter. Market supply and demand improved, and positive factors continued to increase. However, there are still unfavorable factors restricting the benefits of industrial enterprises. The domestic market demand is still weak in general. The profit growth power also depends too much on the rise of prices. The foundation for economic stability is not solid.
From the perspective of the industry, nonferrous metal related industries have seen a significant recovery, bringing significant improvement to the market supply and demand relationship. However, at present, the substantial improvement of non-ferrous metal benefits is mainly due to the sharp rise in prices, abundant market funds and speculation. However, the contradiction between supply and demand caused by overcapacity and the lagging growth of downstream demand has not been fundamentally alleviated. Preliminary judgment shows that in 2017, the production of nonferrous metals industry will continue to maintain a moderate and stable trend, and the growth rate of industrial added value of nonferrous metals enterprises above designated size is expected to remain at the level of 6% - 7%; The output of ten nonferrous metals maintained a small growth trend; Investment in fixed assets in nonferrous industries is difficult to improve; The foundation for the sustained recovery of enterprise economic benefits is still not stable.
1. The leading composite index of nonferrous metals industry (abbreviated as "leading index") is used to judge the recent change trend of the economic operation of nonferrous metals industry. The index is composed of the following seven indicators: LMEX index, M1, household appliance output, automobile output, sales area of commercial housing, monthly investment in fixed assets of nonferrous metal industry, and imports of nonferrous metal products.
2. The concordance composite index of nonferrous metals industry (hereinafter referred to as the concordance index) reflects the current operation of the nonferrous metals industry economy. The index consists of the following five indicators: output of ten kinds of nonferrous metals, power generation, main business income of nonferrous metal enterprises above designated size, total profit of nonferrous metal enterprises above designated size, and export volume of nonferrous metal products.
3. The composite lagging index of nonferrous metal industry (hereinafter referred to as lagging index), together with consistent indicators, is mainly used to monitor the trend of economic changes and play an ex post verification role. It is composed of the following three indicators: the number of employees of nonferrous metal enterprises above designated size, the finished product capital (amount occupied at the end of the period) of nonferrous metal enterprises above designated size, and the average balance of current assets of nonferrous metal enterprises above designated size.
4. The comprehensive prosperity index reflects the current prosperity of the nonferrous metal industry. The prosperity indicator chart divides the industrial economy into five levels. The "red light" indicates that the economy is overheating, the "yellow light" indicates that the economy is too hot, the "green light" indicates that the economy is operating normally, the "light blue light" indicates that the economy is too cold, and the "blue light" indicates that the economy is too cold. Give different weights to individual indicator lights, and the comprehensive prosperity index summarized by them is also displayed by five light areas.
The comprehensive prosperity index is composed of 12 indicators, namely the leading index and the consistent index.
5. All indicators used in the compilation of the index have been seasonally adjusted, and seasonal factors have been eliminated.
6. The previous monthly climate index will be revised every month. When the latest monthly data is added to the time series, the previous monthly climate index will change more or less, which is the result of automatic correction of the model.
7. The nonferrous metal industry includes nonferrous metal mining and dressing industry and nonferrous metal smelting, rolling and processing industry. For the convenience of analysis, the data of independent gold enterprises are not included in the compilation of the prosperity index of nonferrous metal industry.