The nonferrous metal industry is one of the important basic industries of manufacturing industry and an important support for realizing a manufacturing power. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China issued the Non ferrous Metals Industry Development Plan (2016-2020) (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), and the General Office of the State Council issued the Guiding Opinions on Creating a Good Market Environment to Promote the Non ferrous Metals Industry to Restructure, Promote Transformation and Increase Benefits (GBF [2016] No. 42, hereinafter referred to as the "Guiding Opinions") in June 2016, It will become a programmatic document guiding the development of China's nonferrous metal industry during the 13th Five Year Plan period. The Plan puts forward the main goal of "During the 13th Five Year Plan period, significant progress has been made in the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the nonferrous metal industry, and the quality and efficiency have been greatly improved. By the end of the 13th Five Year Plan period, China's nonferrous metal industry will become a manufacturing power." It is encouraging and promising. The copper industry, which plays an important role in the nonferrous metal industry, how to implement the Plan and the Guiding Opinions will directly affect the realization of the main objectives of the Plan.
China has the basic conditions to build itself into a world power in nonferrous metal copper industry
Since the "Twelfth Five Year Plan", China's copper industry has actively promoted transformation, structural adjustment and transformation, and has fully or over fulfilled the main objectives of the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" in terms of energy conservation and emission reduction, technological innovation, structural adjustment, environmental governance and resource security. Large diameter deep hole mining with independent intellectual property rights, safe and efficient mining of complex deposits, continuous converting of crude copper, efficient utilization of waste copper and other technologies have reached the international leading level, and the advanced copper smelting capacity has accounted for 99% of the country.
During the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, the annual average growth of refined copper output was 11.9%, the annual average growth of apparent consumption was 8.9%, and the annual average growth of copper production was 10.2%, both close to or higher than the growth rate of nonferrous metal output and apparent consumption in the same period, and higher than the growth rate of domestic GDP in the same period; The backward smelting capacity of copper has been eliminated by 2.88 million tons accumulatively, and the comprehensive energy consumption of copper smelting is 256 kg standard coal/ton, down 27.8% from 2010; The output of recycled copper is 2.95 million tons, with an average annual growth of 5.3% in five years; The total discharge of heavy metal pollutants has been declining. International cooperation has been constantly promoted, and a number of overseas resource bases and processing bases have been built and put into operation.
The integration of industrialization and industrialization has gradually deepened. Computer simulation, intelligent control, big data, cloud platform and other technologies are gradually applied to the production, management and service of copper enterprises. Important progress has been made in the digital and intelligent construction of domestic large-scale open-pit mines and underground mines. The intelligent control system for copper smelting production, the digital control molding technology for copper processing, and the e-commerce platform based on "Internet plus" are gradually promoted, and the integration level of industrialization and industrialization is constantly improving.
Optimizing the stock, guiding the increment and actively reducing the quantity are the key to resolving the structural overcapacity
In recent years, the scale of China's copper industry has been expanding, the industrial structure has been optimized, the quality level has been improved, and the international operation ability has been enhanced, achieving rapid development. At the same time, however, affected by the changes in the international and domestic economic situation, the structural capacity contradiction, market supply and demand imbalance and other deep-seated contradictions and problems that the copper industry has accumulated for a long time have gradually emerged. First, the copper industry has a large scale and a weak resource guarantee foundation. In 2015, China's copper output was 7.96 million tons, accounting for about 40% of the world's total output, and the external dependence of copper resources was close to 75%. Second, the apparent consumption of copper is huge and difficult to sustain. In 2015, China's apparent consumption of copper was about 11.47 million tons, accounting for about 50% of the world, 6.23 times that of the United States in 2014; Since 2010, the world's annual copper consumption outside China has basically hovered around 12 million tons. Third, environmental constraints are more prominent and the task of sustainable development is arduous. Not only is the task of domestic ecological environment construction very arduous, but also due to the influence of policy changes, legal constraints and weak infrastructure in resource exporting countries, imported copper resources are facing new uncertainties. At the same time, the international climate change and carbon emission situation will become increasingly severe, and the industry development will also face prominent problems such as difficult treatment of tailings and smelting slag, prevention and control of heavy metal pollution, and environmental relocation of enterprises in urban areas. The task of green development is arduous.
The Guiding Opinions clearly put forward the requirements of "optimizing stock, guiding increment, actively reducing quantity, and resolving structural overcapacity" in the guiding ideology. This is an organic whole. We should not take things out of context and go their own way. Otherwise, the goal of resolving structural overcapacity will not be achieved, and the contradiction will become more prominent. "Active reduction" is often a passive act of necessity. The whole society should give more tolerance and understanding, and copper enterprises should be encouraged and strongly supported within their capabilities. While "optimizing the stock" and "guiding the increment" should adhere to the combination of market leadership and government guidance. When necessary, we should also take the initiative to lend a helping hand to enterprises and regions that "actively reduce the volume". Otherwise, we will go back to the old path of "adding more water and more water". Although the results of the US election have provided a "shot in the arm" to boost confidence in the growth of world copper consumption during the "13th Five Year Plan" period, even if the US $5000 trillion of infrastructure investment promised at the election has been fully realized, it is estimated that the US copper consumption will not exceed 3 million tons by 2020. Therefore, it is a long way to go to control the total capacity of copper smelting according to the overall requirements of the Guiding Opinions during the "13th Five Year Plan" period.
Firmly establishing and implementing the development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing is the core
Both the Guiding Opinions and the Plan clearly put forward in the guiding ideology the concept of firmly establishing and implementing innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development. This should not be a slogan, but should be implemented realistically in combination with the actual situation of all walks of life. As far as the development of China's copper industry is concerned, I hope you can think and practice as follows.
On innovation: We should strive to avoid parochialism and vulgarization. While adhering to technological innovation, we should closely focus on promoting supply side structural reform, optimizing stock, guiding increment, actively reducing quantity, defusing structural overcapacity, promoting technological progress of enterprises, creating a good business environment and increasing benefits. We should carefully review and summarize the experience and lessons learned from the diversified and innovative development model that focused on expanding production capacity by "building new stalls" under the shortage economy environment, and carry out the reform and innovation of the operation and management mechanism with the courage and determination of a great man to break ranks, so that it can adapt to the new normal, lead the new normal, and increase the new momentum of development and real economic benefits.
On coordination: on the one hand, we should maximize the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of our cadres and workers, introduce and use all complementary elements such as external talents and capital, and be realistic and determined to break through the "dirty obstacles" that restrict the development of our unit, so as to continuously improve our comparative competitiveness. On the other hand, we should make every effort to innovate and coordinate the interests of the copper industry "upstream and downstream, left and right banks", and strive to avoid the mistake of "whole industry chain" development, and increase the structural overcapacity.
Green: The connotation of green is very rich and broad, but for copper mines and smelting (including regeneration) production enterprises, the most important thing is to ensure efficient, clean and safe production. It is necessary to strictly implement the Environmental Protection Law and other relevant laws and regulations, and strive to eliminate major safety and environmental accidents.
About openness: it is mainly that leading cadres should be sensitive and open in mind while firmly establishing the awareness of Party Constitution, Party Rules and Party Discipline. In the process of "optimizing the stock and guiding the increment", we should break through the constraints of traditional concepts, actively develop the mixed ownership economy in accordance with the "five in one" overall layout and the "four comprehensive" strategic deployment, and make contributions to resolving the long-term accumulated structural overcapacity, market supply and demand imbalance and other deep-seated contradictions while striving to avoid the "hollowing out" of the enterprise.
About sharing: First, the cadres and staff of the unit should share the same breath and destiny, share the development achievements of the unit, and share the relevant responsibilities and risks; Second, we should scientifically handle the relationship with all stakeholders to achieve long-term stable and friendly coexistence, benefit sharing and risk sharing; Third, it is also the most easily despised. We should adjust measures to local conditions and implement policies according to enterprises, and do everything possible to share the existing innovation and development achievements in all aspects, especially the production process and technology achievements that can be "combined with military and civilian", so as to strengthen technological innovation and expand market application. Try to avoid starting from scratch and falling into a new passive situation.
Strengthening international production capacity cooperation is an effective way
China has a high degree of dependence on foreign copper resources, implements the strategic deployment of the "the Belt and Road", gives full play to China's advantages in copper smelting and deep processing technology, equipment and talents, supports domestic enterprises to participate in international new materials, intelligent manufacturing and other large-scale scientific and technological cooperation programs, and carries out overseas cooperative investment in accordance with the requirements of the Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Promoting International Cooperation in Production Capacity and Equipment Manufacturing (GF [2015] No. 30), Set up R&D centers and vocational education colleges overseas, build an international innovation cooperation platform, make full use of international innovation resources and markets, realize technology upgrading and establish a global production service system. This is not only an inevitable strategic choice for the development of China's copper industry, but also conforms to the development law of the world's copper industry.
Comprehensively consider such factors as resources and energy, politics, law and market. China's powerful copper enterprise groups should actively use the national library of international production capacity cooperation projects to guide and support enterprises to carry out the construction of overseas economic and trade cooperation zones in combination with the construction of major projects, drive the output of the whole industrial chain, such as upstream and downstream enterprises, advanced equipment, technology, design, engineering construction, standards and services Smelting projects will be built in South America and other regions, and deep processing projects will be built in countries and regions with large non-ferrous metal consumption potential. Recycling metal recovery systems in developed countries and regions will be used to build renewable non-ferrous metal smelting and processing capacity, and international business capacity will be constantly improved. However, relevant statistical data show that since 2010, the world copper consumption has been wandering except for China, and the copper consumption of countries along the "the Belt and Road" accounts for a low proportion of the world's total consumption. Therefore, to strengthen international capacity cooperation, efforts should be made to avoid the "hollowing out" of China's copper industry and increase the overcapacity of international copper smelting.
It is urgent to further strengthen the research on the consumption law of refined copper
Relevant statistics show that from 1950 to 2015, China's cumulative refined copper consumption has reached 100 million tons, which is not only more than Japan's total cumulative consumption in the same period, but also close to the total cumulative consumption of the United States. In 2015, China's per capita apparent consumption of refined copper was nearly 7 kg/year, twice the world's per capita level and 1.15 times that of the United States; The consumption intensity of refined copper per unit GDP in China is about 8 times that of the United States and 4 times that of the world. Assuming that according to the Plan, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China in 2015 is 11.47 million tons/year, and the average annual growth rate during the "13th Five Year Plan" period is 3.3%, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China will reach 13.5 million tons/year by 2020, exceeding the total world refined copper consumption of 13.36 million tons/year in 1998. If the growth rate of copper consumption in the Plan continues to decline with the reduction and substitution of copper consumption caused by the transformation of economic development mode and technological progress, it is estimated that the annual growth rate of refined copper consumption in the 13th Five Year Plan will be 3.3%, down from 8.9% to 3.3% in the 12th Five Year Plan. Even if the annual growth rate during the 14th Five Year Plan period is "0", the cumulative consumption of refined copper in China will exceed 130 million tons from 2015 to 2025, It is equivalent to the total copper consumption of building a new China in 10 years. Is it possible that this is worth pondering? We firmly believe that China's status as a major producer and consumer of copper in the world cannot be changed, but the growth trend of copper consumption cannot be maintained for a long time. Otherwise, there is no practice to prove and it does not conform to the law of development.